🔗 Share this article

"I'll be sitting in this seat by 2027," Starmer remarked, noting that if our interview proceeded smoothly, he might invite us into his official residence for another chat in 2026.

For a PM, there's never truly time off for leaders. Just an hour before we sat down, the PM had been speaking with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to understand what on earth had happened in Venezuela, where his close political chum, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a refresh. Perhaps even just a little relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

That certainly seemed to have resulted in better spirits than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a awful year politically for him.

But are he and his colleagues deluding themselves if they reckon his fortunes are about to get better?

Party Concerns

The harsh truth for the PM is that a significant number of his party members think he's ineffective at his job. Several of them would sooner take a risk and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was having none of it during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he told me he'd be "judged at the next election", maintaining nobody would strip his term from him – even if the best chance of preventing Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the struggle of our generation and I plan to be at the forefront," he said.

The May Elections

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He attempted to argue, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, even if a his MPs ran against him for the job, should those elections be disastrous for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He sought to explain his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was naturally impatient for things to change. He aimed to convince me, and the nation, that this year would be distinct.

The economic situation would improve notwithstanding rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the government put in place during their initial turbulent year began to take effect.

• He pledged to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, but he did not set a new date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt closer now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first time that Western allies were now considering how to coordinate US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – more relaxed, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from within his own party for a more decisive strategy, with greater political direction, more dynamism, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in such significant political trouble, should he consider a change of tack?

No administration, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, gets everything its own way.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his team have faltered, including in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an backlash when statements he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting evident political dangers as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new complication after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "lifelong proponent of international law" but we "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Opponents called for him to denounce it before the interview. And the government is expected to face further scrutiny to give an explicit view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also always been simmering pressure in the Labour party to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's pursuing that, but his new more concrete pledge to move closer with the EU's single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will likely provoke howls that he is breaking his vow never to try to overturn the decisions that followed Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will please many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to