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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest surprise.

However the current field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing several other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still